Venezuela’s oil sector is undergoing a major shift due to direct U.S. military and economic actions that have targeted both its physical infrastructure and the clandestine maritime networks used to bypass international sanctions.
Venezuela currently produces approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd). While physical facilities like the Jose Terminal remain functional, operational output has been hampered by recent cyberattacks on PDVSA’s systems and a lack of sustained investment.
Experts estimate it would take roughly $10 billion annually (totaling $100 billion over a decade) to return production to historical levels of 4 million bpd.
Due to a U.S. naval blockade, roughly 21.5 million barrels of crude are currently stuck in tankers as PDVSA nears its usable storage limit of approximately 20 million barrels.
Following the capture of President Maduro in January 2026, the U.S. administration is pressuring private oil companies to reinvest in and rebuild the shattered infrastructure as a condition for asset recovery.
Venezuela has increasingly relied on a “shadow fleet”—a network of aging, opaquely owned tankers—to move nearly 800,000 bpd (representing 60% of state income) outside regular compliance regimes.
Vessels frequently deactivate mandatory location signals (AIS) or conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in regulatory havens like Panama, Comoros, and Malta to mask the origin of the oil.
About 80% of exports are routed to China through complex intermediary networks.
In December 2025, the U.S. launched a “total and complete blockade,” leading to the seizure of multiple tankers, including the Skipper and the Bella 1.
New sanction on January 3, 2026, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned four additional tankers—Nord Star, Rosalind (Lunar Tide), Della, and Valiant—for their roles in the shadow fleet.
The disruption of these “shadow barrels” has caused extreme volatility in oil markets, particularly affecting heavy-sour crude segments where Venezuelan and Iranian oil account for 15–20% of global supply.
Note by Alessandro Bazzoni