OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its decision to hold oil production steady through the first quarter of 2026 when key members meet on Sunday, according to delegates and industry sources. The stance comes despite rising geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty surrounding Venezuela’s oil sector.
The eight OPEC+ countries currently enforcing voluntary supply cuts — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed in November to delay planned production increases from January through March, citing seasonally weaker demand. Delegates say that position remains unchanged, even after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a rare, highly publicized rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025, their steepest annual drop since the pandemic, as growing supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers collided with slowing demand and mounting expectations of a significant surplus in 2026. Against this backdrop, analysts see little motivation for the group to increase output in the near term.
Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, its current production represents less than 1% of global supply. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested American oil companies could invest heavily to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure following Maduro’s capture, but analysts agree that any meaningful increase in output would take years. OPEC+ delegates say developments in Caracas are unlikely to affect short-term supply decisions, though they could gain relevance later in the year.
The meeting also takes place amid uncommon public friction between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over Yemen, where the two allies have backed opposing factions. Recent Saudi-led airstrikes and the UAE’s decision to withdraw its remaining forces have highlighted the strain. Still, market observers note that OPEC has historically preserved unity through far more severe geopolitical crises.
For now, OPEC+ appears firmly focused on price stability. Maintaining current output levels through the first quarter is seen as the most cautious approach as the group navigates oversupplied markets, fragile demand growth, and an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
note by Alessandro Bazzoni