The Strait of Hormuz blockade has removed roughly 9M bpd of crude from global supply, and replacement barrels aren’t keeping up, according to Vortexa.
U.S. Gulf Coast exports have surged to record levels—helped by releases from the SPR—while alternative routes via Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan are adding about 3.6M bpd back into the system. Still, the gap remains significant.
Global crude imports are down करीब 10M bpd, with Asia absorbing most of the shortfall. Atlantic Basin shipments to Asia have risen to ~7M bpd, covering only about 30% of the lost Middle East supply.
The rest is being offset by inventory draws. Onshore stocks outside China have fallen by ~49M barrels in the past four weeks—a sharp decline that highlights how little buffer remains. Meanwhile, crude stored at sea has already dropped back to seasonal norms, leaving onshore inventories to absorb the strain.
By Alessandro Bazzoni