Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure and could fall to around $50 per barrel for Brent by mid-year, driven by ample global supply, according to analysts at India’s SBI Research.
“Oil prices have generally stayed subdued following OPEC+’s decision to increase production,” the analysts said in a note cited by Fortune India.
SBI Research expects India’s crude import basket to weaken in line with international benchmarks. “Our base case is $50 per barrel — or potentially even lower — by June 2026,” the analysts said.
That outlook broadly aligns with base-case forecasts from major Wall Street banks. Goldman Sachs said in November that oil prices are likely to decline further into next year as the market faces a significant surplus, with U.S. benchmark WTI crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.
Goldman estimates the global oil surplus will average about 2 million barrels per day this year, adding that 2026 is likely to mark the final phase of the current wave of supply growth. The bank expects the market to rebalance in 2027, once this surge in production has been absorbed.
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC in November that 2026 would represent “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through.”
Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that Brent crude prices will average about $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that level for the rest of the year. The EIA attributed the weakness to rising global production and softer winter demand, which are expected to accelerate the build-up of oil inventories.
Notably, many of these forecasts were issued before the U.S. extraction of Nicolás Maduro and the escalation of pressure on Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Despite the dramatic developments, oil prices have shown little reaction so far, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over Venezuela’s future supply and whether U.S. companies are willing or able to drive a meaningful recovery in the country’s oil output.
Note by Alessandro Bazzoni