Oil firms are currently facing a severe shortage of tankers, a situation described by industry brokers as “crazy and unprecedented” as of late March 2026. This crisis is primarily driven by a combination of escalating Middle East conflicts and structural fleet deficiencies. The Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil and products pass daily—has seen traffic drop to very low levels due to regional conflict, leaving millions of barrels stranded.
Vessel Entrapment: Approximately 64 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) are currently trapped within the Arabian Gulf, representing roughly 8% of the global fleet.: Ongoing Houthi attacks have forced widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage durations by 10–14 days and effectively reducing available ship capacity.
The industry is struggling with a historically low order book; in 2024, only two new supertankers were delivered, the lowest in nearly 40 years. Spot rates have reached record levels. West Africa to UK Suezmax rates recently surged 40% in a single week to over $205,000 per day.
Major oil firms like BP and Shell have met with government officials to discuss contingency plans as sourcing vessels becomes a “major headache”.
In a desperate bid for capacity, new supertankers are reportedly racing empty from East Asia to pick up crude in the Atlantic Basin to secure cargoes as quickly as possible.
Nations like the Philippines have declared a state of national energy emergency due to reliance on Gulf imports, while India is reporting fuel shortages.
While 40 new VLCCs are scheduled for delivery in 2026, effective fleet growth is expected to remain below 3% as an aging fleet (nearly 20% of VLCCs are over 20 years old) moves into the “dark fleet” for sanctioned trades.
Sustained Pressure: Analysts at Poten & Partners and Clarksons warn that even if chokepoints reopen, the supply chain shock will take months to unwind.
Note by Alessandro Bazzoni